Seoul [South Korea], December 30: Record-low birth rates are plunging South Korea into an unprecedented demographic crisis, resulting in thousands of school closures and many local communities facing the risk of decline.
"Haunted Schools"
Data released by the South Korean Ministry of Education on December 28th shows that 4,008 schools nationwide have closed due to a lack of students. Elementary schools accounted for the majority with 3,674, followed by 264 middle schools and 70 high schools. In the last five years alone, 158 schools have closed, and another 107 are expected to cease operations within the next five years.
This trend is occurring more rapidly and intensely in areas outside the capital. North Jeolla, South Jeolla, Gyeonggi, and South Chungcheong are the most severely affected. The decline in student numbers poses a risk of community decline, creating irreversible "demographic gaps," according to The Korea Times .
The root cause lies in the extremely low birth rate, with South Korea's overall fertility rate consistently below 0.8, while the minimum required to maintain population size is 2.1 children per woman. The Korea Institute for Educational Development forecasts that the number of students will decrease from the current 5.07 million to 4.25 million by 2029, less than half the more than 10 million students in the 1980s.
Furthermore, the rate of repurposing closed educational facilities is lagging far behind the rate of population decline. Of the more than 4,000 schools that have closed, 376 are currently unused, many abandoned for decades. This situation raises concerns about the waste of public assets and the degradation of local living spaces.
Long-term challenge
International organizations and experts alike agree that South Korea's demographic outlook in the medium and long term is particularly bleak. A recent United Nations report classified South Korea as a country with an "extremely low fertility rate," estimating only a 0.1% chance of the country recovering to a sustainable fertility rate within the next three decades.
Faced with this pressure, central and local governments have launched various measures such as cash subsidies, support for childbirth costs, and even state-organized dating programs. However, experts believe these measures only address the symptoms, according to The Guardian .
The root causes of the crisis lie in escalating housing costs, fierce educational competition, a culture of long working hours, and gender imbalance, which cause many young people to delay or forgo marriage and childbirth. Against a backdrop of rising youth unemployment, increasingly stringent qualification and experience requirements, and some of the longest working hours in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), achieving work-life balance is becoming increasingly difficult for young South Koreans, according to Al Jazeera .
Experts warn that the ripple effects of the demographic crisis will spread to many sectors, from construction, transportation, and services to national welfare systems and pension funds. Immigration is seen as a solution to compensate for the labor shortage, but it is unlikely to be enough to reverse demographic trends and carries the potential risk of increasing social tensions.
Nevertheless, Nicholas Eberstadt, a political economist at the American Enterprise Institute, told CNBC that South Korea can still maintain economic prosperity through technological innovation and policy adjustments. However, to prevent the risk of a population collapse, experts believe South Korea needs comprehensive and coordinated reforms, ranging from labor, education , and welfare to gender equality, instead of relying solely on short-term support packages.
Source: Thanh Nien Newspaper